Forecast for Hoosier Legally and Physically Available Yield

Prepared by: Stockholm Environment Institute, using the Water Evaluation And Planning system (WEAP)
Forecast date: October 15, 2022

Summary

Result Value Units Description Comparison
Forecast Yield 9,409 Acre-feet April through November legally and physically available flows at Hoosier 72.2% of average actual yield (13,025 AF) from 1988-2021
Hoosier Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) 0.6 Inches Observed SWE from SNOTEL site 531 on 10/15/2022 81% of Oct 15 average SWE (0.7 in) from 1981-2021
Cumulative WY to Date Precipitation
(Oct 1 2021 to Oct 15, 2022)		 1.4 Inches Observed Upper Blue precipitation from gridMET data Annual WYTD average (1981-2021): 1.4 in
WY Annual Precipitation Forecast
(Oct 1 2021 to Sep 30 2022)		 30.1 Inches WY 2022 annual precipitation, forecast Annual WY average (1981-2021): 27.7 in

Details

  1. Forecast Yield for 2022 is 9,409 acre-feet, which is 72.2% of average actual yield (13,025) from 1988-2021

    2. This forecast was made on October 15, 2022
    Data sources:

  2. Forecasts made this year by SEI and WEAP (download CSV)

    3. Forecast Date Forecast
    2/12/2022 5,828 AF
    3/2/2022 6,479 AF
    3/5/2022 7,438 AF
    3/7/2022 7,284 AF
    3/15/2022 7,710 AF
    4/2/2022 7,438 AF
    4/15/2022 7,405 AF
    5/1/2022 7,860 AF
    5/15/2022 7,904 AF
    6/1/2022 8,337 AF
    6/15/2022 8,161 AF
    7/1/2022 8,374 AF
    7/15/2022 9,198 AF
    8/1/2022 8,664 AF
    8/15/2022 9,035 AF
    9/1/2022 9,607 AF
    9/15/2022 9,295 AF
    10/1/2022 9,630 AF
    10/15/2022 9,409 AF

  3. Unconstrained Yields prior to 2022, with current forecast

    4. (CSV)

    Data sources:

  4. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

    5. Observed Hoosier SWE on October 15, 2022: 0.6 inches, which is 81% of October 15 average SWE (0.7 in) from 1981-2021

    Modeled and forecasted SWE ("Snow Depth (MWE)") compared to Hoosier SNOTEL site ("Snow Gauge")

    (CSV)


    (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:

  5. Streamflow at Shoshone

    6. (CSV)
    Data sources:


  6. Streamflow near Cameo

    7. (CSV)
    Data sources:


  7. Precipitation for the Water Year (Oct 1 to Sep 30)

    8. (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:


  8. Cumulative WY-to-date precipitation (Oct 1 to Oct 15)

    9. Cumulative precipitation from Current Water Year start (Oct 1) to date of forecast (Oct 15); also compared to historical years
    (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:


  9. Cumulative precipitation from forecast date to end of WY (Oct 15 to Sep 30)

    10. (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:

Methods

  1. Use of GridMET climate products
    2. Climate data from GridMET: https://www.climatologylab.org/gridmet.html

    Direct download and processing into WEAP of:
  2. How the climate datasets are assembled


  3. How the WEAP model is run

WEAP Model

Model Name: ColoHeadwaters_05Apr2022 (download model)


References and Links

  1. Previous Hoosier L&P Forecasts: http://csu.weap21.org/Forecast
  2. Forecast streamflows by USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
  3. Snowpack Map
  4. Gridmet Seasonal Forecast Maps
  5. Observed SWE from SNOTEL site 531


Created by WEAP version 2021.0201 on October 15, 2022
WEAP Website