Forecast for Hoosier Legally and Physically Available Yield

Prepared by: Stockholm Environment Institute, using the Water Evaluation And Planning system (WEAP)
Forecast date: September 24, 2023

Summary

Result Value Units Description Comparison
Forecast Yield 8,365 Acre-feet April through November legally and physically available flows at Hoosier 64.9% of average actual yield (12,892 AF) from 1988-2022
Hoosier Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) MissingValue Inches Observed SWE from SNOTEL site 531 on 9/24/2023 MissingValue% of Sep 24 average SWE (0.1 in) from 1981-2022
Cumulative WY to Date Precipitation
(Oct 1 2022 to Sep 24, 2023)		 26.2 Inches Observed Upper Blue precipitation from gridMET data Annual WYTD average (1981-2022): 27.7 in
WY Annual Precipitation Forecast
(Oct 1 2022 to Sep 30 2023)		 26.2 Inches WY 2023 annual precipitation, forecast Annual WY average (1981-2022): 27.7 in

Details

  1. Forecast Yield for 2023 is 8,365 acre-feet, which is 64.9% of average actual yield (12,892) from 1988-2022

    2. This forecast was made on September 24, 2023
    Data sources:

  2. Forecasts made this year by SEI and WEAP (download CSV)

    3. Forecast Date Forecast
    1/15/2023 9,589 AF
    1/22/2023 9,677 AF
    1/29/2023 9,813 AF
    2/5/2023 10,932 AF
    2/12/2023 10,002 AF
    2/19/2023 10,225 AF
    2/26/2023 10,163 AF
    3/5/2023 10,148 AF
    3/12/2023 10,148 AF
    3/19/2023 10,166 AF
    3/26/2023 9,993 AF
    4/2/2023 9,956 AF
    4/9/2023 10,194 AF
    4/16/2023 10,188 AF
    4/30/2023 9,185 AF
    5/7/2023 9,373 AF
    5/14/2023 10,217 AF
    5/21/2023 10,278 AF
    5/28/2023 9,968 AF
    6/4/2023 8,713 AF
    6/11/2023 8,919 AF
    6/18/2023 9,489 AF
    6/25/2023 9,366 AF
    7/2/2023 8,855 AF
    7/9/2023 8,855 AF
    7/16/2023 8,855 AF
    7/23/2023 8,855 AF
    7/30/2023 8,193 AF
    8/13/2023 8,363 AF
    8/20/2023 8,284 AF
    8/27/2023 8,299 AF
    9/3/2023 8,497 AF
    9/10/2023 8,393 AF
    9/17/2023 8,365 AF
    9/24/2023 8,365 AF

  3. Unconstrained Yields prior to 2023, with current forecast

    4. (CSV)

    Data sources:

  4. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

    5. Observed Hoosier SWE on September 24, 2023: MissingValue inches, which is MissingValue% of September 24 average SWE (0.1 in) from 1981-2022

    Modeled and forecasted SWE ("Snow Depth (MWE)") compared to Hoosier SNOTEL site ("Snow Gauge")

    (CSV)


    (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:

  5. Streamflow at Shoshone

    6. (CSV)
    Data sources:


  6. Streamflow near Cameo

    7. (CSV)
    Data sources:


  7. Precipitation for the Water Year (Oct 1 to Sep 30)

    8. (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:


  8. Cumulative WY-to-date precipitation (Oct 1 to Sep 24)

    9. Cumulative precipitation from Current Water Year start (Oct 1) to date of forecast (Sep 24); also compared to historical years
    (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:


  9. Cumulative precipitation from forecast date to end of WY (Sep 24 to Sep 30)

    10. (CSV) (CSV)
    Data sources:

Methods

  1. Use of GridMET climate products
    2. Climate data from GridMET: https://www.climatologylab.org/gridmet.html

    Direct download and processing into WEAP of:
  2. How the climate datasets are assembled


  3. How the WEAP model is run

WEAP Model

Model Name: ColoHeadwaters_05Apr2022 (download model)


References and Links

  1. Previous Hoosier L&P Forecasts: http://csu.weap21.org/Forecast
  2. Forecast streamflows by USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
  3. Snowpack Map
  4. Gridmet Seasonal Forecast Maps
  5. Observed SWE from SNOTEL site 531


Created by WEAP version 2023.0 on September 24, 2023
WEAP Website